Subscribe to our Newsletter

Get a monthly digest of the latest Football GAP insights.

About Us

We believe the individual impact of football players cannot be measured by vanity metrics like goals, passes, tackles won or possession. Real team players influence besides their own metrics especially their team members, their opponents and as a final output the game result directly and indirectly. This is what Football GAP is about.

© 2025 Football Gap. All rights reserved.

PrivacyTermsContact

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 33

Premier League - Gameweek 33

Sunday, 19 Apr 2026 • 14:00

City Ground (West Bridgford, Nottingham)

Nottingham Forest

4 : 1

Burnley

Goals

45'
0 : 1
Zian Flemming
0 : 1
Zian Flemming45'
Morgan Gibbs-W...
1 : 1
62'
62'Morgan Gibbs-White
1 : 1
Morgan Gibbs-W...
2 : 1
69'
69'Morgan Gibbs-White
2 : 1
Morgan Gibbs-W...
3 : 1
77'
77'Morgan Gibbs-White
3 : 1
Igor Jesus
4 : 1
90'
90'Igor Jesus
4 : 1

Game Review

Nottingham Forest delivered a commanding performance at the City Ground, defeating Burnley 4-1 in their Premier League clash. This result was somewhat unexpected given Burnley's recent form, but Nottingham Forest capitalized on their home advantage to secure a crucial victory. The match began with Burnley taking the lead just before halftime through Zian Flemming (GAP -0.0%), who found the net in the 45th minute. However, Nottingham Forest responded emphatically in the second half. Morgan Gibbs-White (GAP +0.7%) was the standout performer, scoring a remarkable hat-trick with goals in the 62nd, 69th, and 77th minutes. His clinical finishing turned the game on its head and showcased his attacking prowess. Igor Jesus added a fourth goal in the 90th minute to seal the victory for the home side. Tactically, Nottingham Forest's manager made two changes to the starting lineup compared to their previous match, bringing in Chris Wood and Dilane Bakwa, while Callum Hudson-Odoi and Igor Jesus were left out. These changes paid dividends, particularly with Gibbs-White's influential role in the attack. Burnley, on the other hand, made a single change with Kyle Walker (GAP -1.1%) coming into the side, replacing Bashir Humphreys. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) highlighted several key performances, with Chris Wood (GAP +4.1%) and Ola Aina (GAP +3.9%) contributing significantly to Nottingham Forest's dominance. In contrast, Burnley's Florentino Luís (GAP -3.8%) struggled to make an impact. Post-match reactions focused on Gibbs-White's exceptional display, with fans and pundits alike praising his ability to change the game's momentum. The victory propels Nottingham Forest further up the table, boosting their confidence as they aim to finish the season strongly. Burnley, meanwhile, will need to regroup quickly to avoid slipping further down the standings. Overall, this result underscores Nottingham Forest's potential to challenge higher up the table, while Burnley must address their defensive frailties to improve their league position.

Lineups

Nottingham Forest

PosPlayer
GK
Matz Sels
DEF
Ola Aina
DEF
Nikola Milenković
DEF
Neco Williams
DEF
Murillo
MID
Morgan Gibbs-White
MID
Ibrahim Sangaré
MID
Elliott Anderson
MID
Omari Hutchinson
FWD
Chris Wood
FWD
Dilane Bakwa

Substitutes

42'Jair Cunhafor Murillo
46'Igor Jesus
for Dilane Bakwa
76'Ryan Yatesfor Chris Wood
88'Moratofor Omari Hutchinson
89'Nicolás Domínguezfor Morgan Gibbs-White

Burnley

PosPlayer
GK
Martin Dubravka
DEF
Kyle Walker
DEF
Hjalmar Ekdal
DEF
Quilindschy Hartman
MID
James Ward-Prowse
MID
Florentino Luís
MID
Zian Flemming
MID
Lesley Ugochukwu
MID
Marcus Edwards
MID
Maxime Esteve
FWD
Jaidon Anthony

Substitutes

64'Lyle Fosterfor Marcus Edwards
76'Jacob Bruun Larsenfor Lesley Ugochukwu
83'Josh Laurentfor Florentino Luís
83'Loum Tchaounafor Jaidon Anthony
84'Armando Brojafor Zian Flemming
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
16Nottingham Forest3399153645-936
D
D
W
D
W
19Burnley3348213467-3320
L
D
L
L
L

Last Games

Nottingham Forest

vsAston Villa
1 - 1
@Tottenham Hotspur
3 - 0
vsFulham
0 - 0
@Manchester City
2 - 2
@Brighton and Hove Albion
1 - 2

Burnley

vsBrighton and Hove Albion
0 - 2
@Fulham
1 - 3
vsBournemouth
0 - 0
@Everton
0 - 2
vsBrentford
3 - 4

Head-to-Head

19 Apr 2026
Nottingham Forest4 - 1Burnley
19 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest
4 - 1
Burnley
20 Sept 2025
Burnley1 - 1Nottingham Forest
20 Sept 2025Burnley
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024
Burnley1 - 2Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024Burnley
1 - 2
Nottingham Forest
18 Sept 2023
Nottingham Forest1 - 1Burnley
18 Sept 2023Nottingham Forest
1 - 1
Burnley

Premier League

Gameweek 33

18 Apr • 12:30
Brentford
Fulham
0 - 0
18 Apr • 15:00
Leeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 - 0
18 Apr • 15:00
Newcastle United
Bournemouth
1 - 2
18 Apr • 17:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Brighton and Hove Albion
2 - 2
18 Apr • 20:00
Chelsea
Manchester United
0 - 1
19 Apr • 14:00
Everton
Liverpool
1 - 2
19 Apr • 14:00
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4 - 1
19 Apr • 14:00
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4 - 3
19 Apr • 16:30
Manchester City
Arsenal
2 - 1
20 Apr • 20:00
Crystal Palace
West Ham United
0 - 0

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.